How to design macroeconomic policy in complex environment
how to design macroeconomic policies in complex environments
China Construction machinery information
Introduction: 2011 is the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan. While continuing the complex situation of 2010, China's economy also ushered in a critical period of transformation and a stalemate period of reform. Therefore, the design of macro-control policies needs to be targeted, flexible and effective. Macroeconomic regulation and control in 2011 is facing extremely complex
2011 is the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan. While continuing the complex situation of 2010, China's economy also ushered in a critical period of transformation and a period of stalemate in reform. Therefore, the design of macro-control policies needs to be targeted, flexible and effective
macroeconomic regulation and control in 2011 is facing an extremely complex domestic and international environment. On the one hand, we should maintain a certain growth rate, on the other hand, we should deal with the increasing price pressure, and at the same time, we should make great efforts to do a good job in structural adjustment. The goal of macro-control is changing from relatively simple in the past to gradually diversified. This also determines that macro-control policies need to be more "proactive, prudent and flexible"
unprecedented economic "inflation before heat"
economic overheating is closely associated with price increases, which is a significant feature of inflation since China's reform and opening up. Since 1978, more than 260 scientific researchers, scholars, entrepreneurs and representatives of relevant industry organizations from the wood and plastic industry at home and abroad have attended or participated in a series of activities in China, including 1979-1982, 1983-1986, 1987-1991, 1993-1995 and most recently 2007-2008. Summarizing the characteristics of previous inflation, we find that economic overheating is an important reason for inflation, which is mainly manifested in "investment driven economic overheating". When the excessive investment momentum drives the factory price of industrial products and the purchase price index of raw materials, fuels and power to rise in an all-round way, and the economic development speed is higher than the capacity of resources, the price of raw materials will rise due to insufficient supply. The rise in the price of raw materials will drive prices to continue to rise, CPI will continue to rise, and inflationary pressure will increase
however, this round of inflation is very different from the past. It is a rapid rise in prices under the cold state of the economy. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China implemented a moderately loose monetary policy and an active fiscal policy. Under the action of various stimulus policies, China's macro-economy entered the track of stable recovery and basically recovered to the level before the crisis. The economic growth rate fell continuously from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of last year, and the macro-economy is far from overheating. On the contrary, CPI has been rising all the way to new highs. A large part of economic restorative growth is policy stimulus, and the growth of market demand is mainly driven by "restocking" after "destocking" in the state of crisis. It takes time for government driven investment to change to private independent investment, and the ability of independent economic growth needs to be actively cultivated
in addition, China's macroeconomic operation in 2010 showed the following significant characteristics: first, the high level of the real economy fell and stabilized, showing a "high before and low after" trend, but the decline range of various indicators was significantly lower than expected, and the operation of the real economy entered a normalized region. The economic growth rate gradually fell back, but it was still higher than the potential level of economic growth, which was in line with the strategic intention of macro-control, and the strength of macroeconomic stabilization was fully apparent. Second, when the real economy is still in a sustained recovery and has not yet entered the upsurge stage, the continuous rise in price levels has announced that China has entered the "anti inflation" period ahead of schedule. "Preventing inflation" has replaced "maintaining growth" as the primary task of macro-control. Third, the multiple dynamic mechanisms of China's economic growth are superimposed, making up for the constraints of various adverse factors. The economy has shifted from government driven to market led, and market-based demand has gradually started to make up for the slowdown in demand caused by the withdrawal of stimulus policies; The improvement of export environment and the high level of domestic consumption have made up for the gap of investment decline caused by the adjustment of industrial structure; The economic growth rate in the central and western regions continued to increase, making up for the weak economic growth in the eastern region caused by the crisis; The continued surge in real estate investment has filled the decline in manufacturing and infrastructure investment
the economic operation is still complex and severe
with the per capita GDP of more than 4000 US dollars, China has entered the critical period of transformation and the stalemate period of reform, and will face more predictable and unpredictable risks. International experience shows that not all economies embarking on the journey of industrialization can smoothly enter the stage of modernization development, such as Argentina, Mexico, Iran and other countries, and China is currently at this juncture. In addition, no economy in history has been able to eliminate the growth of China's water crisis with a low base of first-class factors in the same period of 2009 by using high PVDF membrane materials for 30 years. It is still unknown whether China can create miracles after entering the critical period of economic transformation. From a foreign perspective, since the world entered the era of post international financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis has continued to appear, the international commodity prices have fluctuated violently, and the monetary war is about to come. The United States has successively launched quantitative easing monetary policy, the global liquidity has been flooded, long-term inflationary pressure has continued to accumulate, various uncertainties have increased sharply, and the length and difficulty of the global economic recovery may exceed expectations. With the internalization of international issues and the internationalization of domestic issues, China's economy should pay close attention to the global economic response every step it takes
under various environmental uncertainties at home and abroad, China's macro-economy urgently needs to solve the problem and seek a positive solution. Flooding liquidity, sluggish domestic demand and imbalanced industrial structure are the remarkable characteristics of China's macro-economy at present. The international financial crisis has led to a sustained downturn in external demand, and it will take time for domestic demand to expand. However, some domestic industries have excess capacity, a large amount of money and credit are put in, and new growth points of the real economy need to be cultivated. Domestic CPI continues to rise, and the "ghost" of inflation reappears. The economic cycle is characterized by high-frequency and short-term, and the signs of economic hollowing out and foam are prominent. Various factors are intertwined, and China's macro-economy is facing a complex situation, which is mainly manifested in the interweaving of many structural contradictions, and the simultaneous existence of downward and upward economic forces, which restrict each other. First, monetary policy tightening is triggered to "prevent inflation", in which "liquidity recovery" will be the core of the policy, which will dominate the economic downturn and facilitate recovery; Second, the real estate policy continues to increase, and the decline in real estate investment will strengthen the economic downturn; Third, the prospects for economic recovery in developed countries in Europe and the United States are unclear. The United States has launched quantitative easing monetary policy one after another, making global economic growth difficult. Trade conflicts and exchange rate conflicts will intensify the downward pressure on the economy. However, in the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan, various emerging plans and new consumption stimulus policies will bring strong macro stimulus effects, which can effectively hedge various downward pressures. Factors such as the acceleration of urbanization, the advent of the "high-speed rail era" and the growth of the middle class will dominate the economic upside
the working conference of the people's Bank of China held at the beginning of the year listed "stabilizing prices" as the first major task at present and in the future, thus opening the first battle of macro-control in the first year of the transformation. Although the central government has taken a series of price control measures and tightened monetary policy by continuously raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates, certain results have been achieved. However, judging from the current situation, this round of inflation trend is far from over, inflation momentum is still strong, and inflation expectations are still rising
in the future, China's inflation has obvious mixed characteristics, and the pressure of rising prices mainly comes from the following aspects: first, the Federal Reserve and the central banks of other countries in the world have implemented quantitative easing monetary policy, injecting a lot of liquidity into the world, and the safe haven currency during the crisis has begun to become an arbitrage currency. China is facing the pressure of the continuous influx of "hot money", which will greatly offset the efforts of domestic monetary policy to tighten liquidity. Second, in favor of the global ultra loose monetary policy environment, the US dollar will further depreciate, and the prices of international bulk commodities such as oil and iron ore denominated in US dollars will continue to rise sharply, which will undoubtedly increase China's imported inflationary pressure. QE2, whose original intention is to create inflationary expectations and inflation to help the United States avoid falling into deflation, objectively exports inflationary pressure to the world. Third, due to the impact of the rising costs of agricultural labor and means of agricultural production, the cyclical fluctuations of agricultural production, and the crowding out of a large number of food production resources by industrialization and urbanization, China's food supply is only the balance of supply and demand in a tight state. Moreover, the rise in the price of agricultural products in China is directly transmitted by the rise in the price of international agricultural products, and the price of agricultural products is facing continued upward pressure. Fourth, China's labor supply structure is changing, labor costs are rising, and the rapid increase in wages will be a long-term phenomenon. The reform of water, electricity and other resource prices is advancing, and the pressure of cost driven price increases is increasing. Fifth, the expansionary consequences of China's moderately loose monetary policy in the previous stage need to be slowly digested by the market and gradually adjusted by the policy. There is a time lag between money supply and price changes, and the "immediate" effect is difficult to show immediately